Asteroid Impact Risk: The Uncertain Outcome of Deflection Missions

Speaker: Clemens Rumpf, Computational Physics Branch, NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division
November 5, 2019

Presentation

Abstract

The threat of asteroid impacts on the Earth can be mitigated through defection missions. Here we investigate the effect of pre-designed deflection missions on the risk profile of the fictitious impact scenario 2019 PDC under large uncertainties. The impact risk analysis is based on a statistical approach. We sample orbital and physical property distributions for the asteroid that provide a complete representation of possible impact scenarios. The deflection mission imposes a change in velocity on the asteroid and the impulse enhancement factor beta is calculated as part of the analysis. The post-deflection impact risk is compared to the undeflected risk situation. Uncertainties in the asteroid’s physical and orbital properties let the outcome of deflection missions vary. It can therefore be inadequate to label predictions of deflection mission outcomes in binary terms of success and failure. Instead, defining a satisfactory risk reduction goal and scaling the deflection mission capability to deliver this risk reduction is more accurate. In addition, the results highlight dilemmas of decision-makers faced with an asteroid threat scenario. By implementing a deflection mission, the potential impact point of the asteroid is moved, threatening new populations and potentially increasing damage in case of an impact.

Biography

Clemens Rumpf received his Dipl.-Ing. degree in aerospace engineering from TU Braunschweig in 2012 and his Ph.D. in astronautical engineering from the University of Southampton in 2017. He is currently a NASA Postdoctoral Program fellow at NASA Ames Research Center working on asteroid impact risk assessment and detecting large meteors in weather satellite data as part of the ATAP project. Previously, he has worked at the University of Southampton on 3D printing of satellite components and was project lead to build the university’s first small satellite. While at the University of Southampton, he represented the UK Space Agency at the United Nations on the subject of the asteroid impact hazard on several occasions. Other experiences include work as a navigation engineer at the German Aerospace Center (DLR) designing a Kalman filter for an experimental planetary lander vehicle and as a space system engineer at the European Space Agency (ESA) on the ESA Lunar Lander mission.

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