A Failure Propagation Modeling Method for Launch Vehicle Safety Assessment
Speaker: Scott Lawrence, Systems Analysis Group, NASA Ames Research Center
Presentation
Abstract
Characterization of launch system safety builds upon the characterization of the system’s reliability by developing an understanding of the consequences of the system’s failure modes. The likelihood that the initial failure will propagate into crew-threatening explosive environments is a critical component of this understanding. A method has been developed with the objective of making the potentially intractable problem of launch vehicle failure propagation somewhat less intractable. The approach taken is to essentially decouple the potentially multi-stepped propagation process into a series of bi-component transition probabilities. These probabilities are then used within a simple Monte Carlo simulation process through which the more complex behavior emerges. The process will be described using a simple model problem, including some discussion of enhancements for real-world applications.
Biography
Scott Lawrence is an Aerospace Engineer in the Systems Analysis Group at NASA Ames Research Center and a member of the Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team. During his 27 years at NASA, Lawrence has worked to develop and apply computational fluid dynamics methods to problems in hypersonic aerothermodynamics, supersonic aerodynamics, as well as crew safety. His recent work has focused on applying analysis methods of various levels of fidelity to the characterization of failure environments created by catastrophic failure of launch vehicles. Lawrence received his B.S., M.S., and PhD. degrees in Aerospace Engineering from Iowa State University, in Ames, Iowa a long time ago.