Asteroid Threat Assessment Project Papers

Current list of peer-reviewed technical publications authored by members of the Asteroid Threat Assessment Project.

Probabilistic Risk Assessment & Asteroid Characterization

Barbee, W.B., (Dotson, J., Wheeler, L.,), et al., 2026. NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario. Acta Astronautical 244, 249–280. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2026.02.011
Coates, A., Wheeler, L., Dotson, J., 2026. Risk knowledge improvement from additional information for the PDC25 hypothetical impact scenario. Acta Astronautica 240, 782–792. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2025.11.064
Rivkin, A. S., Mueller, T., MacLennan, E., Holler, B., Burdanov, A., de Wit, J., Pravec, P., Micheli, M., Devogele, M., Conversi, L., Thomas, C. A., Farnocchia, D., Dotson, J. L., Wheeler, L., Hammel, H., Milam, S. N., de Leon, J., Glantzberg, A., 2025. JWST Observations of Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 2024 YR4. Research Notes of the American Astronomical Society. https://doi.org/10.3847/2515-5172/adc6f0
Wheeler, L., Dotson, J., Aftosmis, M., Coates, A., Chomette, G., Mathias, D., 2024. Risk assessment for asteroid impact threat scenarios. Acta Astronautica 216, 468–487. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2023.12.049
Dotson, J., Wheeler, L., Mathias, D., 2024. Consequences of asteroid characterization on the state of knowledge about inferred physical parameters and impact risk. Acta Astronautica 222, 550–555. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2024.04.020
Coates, A.M., Stern, E.C., Johnston, C.O., Wheeler, L.F., Mathias, D.L., 2024. Sensitivity study of impact risk model results to thermal radiation damage model for large objects. Acta Astronautica 218, 356–366. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2024.02.022
Chomette, G., Wheeler, L., Mathias, D., 2024. Machine learning for the prediction of local asteroid damages. Acta Astronautica 219, 250–263. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2024.01.049
Robertson, D., Wheeler, L., Mathias, D., 2024. Evacuation and shelter plans for asteroid impacts informed by hurricanes and nuclear explosions. Acta Astronautica 216, 739–755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2023.11.020
Robertson, D., Ozerov, A., Wheeler, L., Pokorny, P., Granvik, M., Rumpf, C., 2023. Erratum: “Latitude Variation of Flux and Impact Angle of Asteroid Collisions with Earth and the Moon” (2021, PSJ, 2 88). Planet. Sci. J. 4 19. https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/aca1a7
Reddy, V., et al. (Dotson, J., Chomette, G., Coates, A., Wheeler, L.), 2024. 2023 DZ2 Planetary Defense Campaign. Planetary Science Journal 5 141. https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/ad4a6d
Reddy, V., …, Dotson, J., Wheeler, L., Rumpf, C., Mathias, D.L., …, et al., 2022. Apophis Planetary Defense Campaign. Planetary Science Journal, 3:123 (16pp). https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/ac66eb
Reddy, V., et al. (Dotson, J., Wheeler, L.), 2022. Near-Earth Asteroid (66391) Moshup (1999 KW4) Observing Campaign: Results from a Global Planetary Defense Characterization Exercise. Icarus 374, 114790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2021.114790
Robertson, D., Pokorny, P., Granvik, M., Wheeler, L., Rumpf, C., 2021. Latitude Variation of Flux and Impact Angle of Asteroid Collisions with Earth and the Moon. Planetary Science Journal, 2 88. https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/abefda
Rumpf, C.M., Mathias, D.L., Wheeler, L., Dotson, J., Barbee, B., Roa, J., Chodas, P., Farnocchia, D., 2020. Deflection Driven Evolution of Asteroid Impact Risk Under Large Uncertainties. Acta Astonautica 176, 276¬–286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2020.05.026
Rumpf, C.M., Mathias, D.L., Wheeler, L., Dotson, J. 2020. Considering Deflection Missions for Asteroid Impact Risk. AIAA SciTech Forum, 6-10 January 2020, Orlando, FL. https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2020-0222 [conference paper]
Wheeler, L.F., Mathias, D.L., 2019. Probabilistic assessment of Tunguska-scale asteroid impacts. Icarus, 327, 83–96. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2018.12.017
Wheeler, L.F., Mathias, D.L., 2019. Effects of asteroid property distributions on expected impact rates. Icarus 321, 767–777. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2018.12.034
Reddy, V.,…, Dotson, J., Wheeler, L., Mathias, D.L.,…, et al., 2019. Near-Earth Asteroid 2012 TC4 Campaign: Results from Global Planetary Defense Exercise. Icarus 326, 133–150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2019.02.018
Mathias, D.L., Wheeler, L.F., Dotson J.L., 2017. A probabilistic asteroid impact risk model: assessment of sub-300m impacts. Icarus 289, 106–119. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2017.02.009
Stokes, G., et al., 2017. Update to determine the feasibility of enhancing the search and characterization of NEOs. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/2017_neo_sdt_final_e-version.pdf

Entry/Breakup Modeling for Risk Assessment and Meteor Inference

Rulko, T.A., Rau, A.R., Chomette, G., Wheeler, L., Mathias, D., Dotson, J., Radovitzky, R., 2025. Stress analysis of asteroids during atmospheric entry and implications for the breakup criterion. Icarus, 434, 116526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2025.116526
Register, P.J., Aftosmis, M.J., Stern, E.C., Brock, J.M., Seltner, P.M., Willems, S., Guelhan, A., Mathias, D.L., 2020. Interactions between asteroid fragments during atmospheric entry. Icarus, 337, 113468. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2019.113468.
Tarano, A.M., Mathias, D., Wheeler, L., Close, S., 2019. Inference of Meteoroid Characteristics Using a Genetic Algorithm. Icarus 329, 270–281. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2019.04.002
Wheeler, L.F., Mathias, D.L., Stokan, E., Brown, P.G., 2018. Atmospheric energy deposition modeling and inference for varied meteoroid structures. Icarus 315, 79–91. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2018.06.014
Wheeler, L.F., Register, P.J., Mathias, D.L., 2017. A fragment-cloud model for asteroid breakup and atmospheric energy deposition. Icarus 295, 149–169. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2017.02.011
Register, P. J., Mathias, D.L., Wheeler, L.F., 2017. Asteroid fragmentation approaches for modeling atmospheric energy deposition. Icarus 284C, 157–166. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2016.11.020

Hydrocode Entry/Burst Simulations

Robertson, D.K., Mathias, D.L., 2019. Hydrocode simulations of asteroid airbursts and constraints for Tunguska. Icarus 327, 36–47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2018.10.017
Robertson, D. K., Mathias, D.L., 2017. Effect of yield curves and porous crush on hydrocode simulations of asteroid airburst. J. Geophys. Res. Planets, 122, 599–613. https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JE005194

Global and Regional Hazards

Titus, T., Robertson, D., Sankey, J.B. et al., 2023. A review of common natural disasters as analogs for asteroid impact effects and cascading hazards. Nat Hazards 116, 1355–1402. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-022-05722-z

Tsunami Modeling and Simulations

Rodriguez, J.A.P., Robertson, D.K., Kargel, J.S. et al, 2022. Evidence of an oceanic impact and megatsunami sedimentation in Chryse Planitia, Mars. Sci Rep 12, 19589. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18082-2
Berger, M.J. and LeVeque, R.J., 2022. Towards Adaptive Simulations of Dispersive Tsunami Propagation from an Asteroid Impact. Proc. ICM, St. Petersburg, Russia, 2022. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2110.01420 [conference paper]
Berger, M., 2022. Asteroid-Generated Tsunamis: A Review. In: Chacón Rebollo, T., Donat, R., Higueras, I. (eds) Recent Advances in Industrial and Applied Mathematics. SEMA SIMAI Springer Series, vol 1. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86236-7_1 [conference paper and associated book chapter]
Robertson, D.K., Gisler, G.R., 2019. Near and far-field hazards of asteroid impacts in oceans. Acta Astronautica 156, 262–277. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2018.09.018
Berger, M., Goodman, J., 2018. Airburst-generated tsunamis. Pure Appl. Geophys. 175 (4), 1525-1543. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00024-017-1745-1
Berger, M.J., LeVeque, R.J., 2018. Modeling issues in asteroid-generated tsunamis. NASA Contractor Report NASA/CR-2018-219786. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20180006617.pdf [NASA CR]
Morrison D. and E. Venkatapathy. 2017. Asteroid generated tsunami: summary of NASA/NOAA workshop. NASA Technical Memorandum, NASA/TM‐219463. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20170005214.pdf [NASA TM]

CFD Blast Simulations

Spurlock, W.M. Aftosmis, M.J., Chiew, J.J., and Nemec, M. Parallel mesh adaptation for unsteady blast simulations on Cartesian meshes. AIAA Paper 2023–1792, Jan. 2023, https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2023-1792.
Aftosmis, M.J., Mathias, D.L., Tarano, A.M., 2019. Simulation-based height of burst map for asteroid airburst damage prediction. Acta Astronautica, 156, 278–283. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2017.12.021
Gi, N. , Brown, P., Aftosmis, M., 2018. The frequency of window damage caused by bolide airbursts: A quarter century case study. Meteoritics and Planetary Science 53(7), 1413–1431. https://doi.org/10.1111/maps.13085
Nemec, M., Aftosmis, M.J., Brown, P.G., 2017. Numerical prediction of meteoric infrasound signatures. Planetary and Space Science 140, 11–20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pss.2017.03.003
Nemec, M., Aftosmis, M.J., and Brown, P.G., 2017. Computational Modeling of Meteor-Generated Ground Pressure Signatures. 23rd AIAA/CEAS Aeroacoustics Conference, AIAA AVIATION Forum, (AIAA 2017-3189). https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2017-3189 [conference paper]
Aftosmis, M.J., Nemec, M., Mathias, D., Berger, M., 2016. Numerical simulation of bolide entry with ground footprint prediction. 54th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting, AIAA SciTech Forum, (AIAA 2016-0998). https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2016-0998 [conference paper]

Multibody and/or Hypersonic Aerodynamics

Seltner, P.M., Willems, S., Gulhan, A., Stern, E.C., Brock, J.M., Aftosmis, M.J., 2021. Aerodynamics of included cylindrical bodies free-flying in a hypersonic flowfield. Experiments in Fluids 62, 182. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00348-021-03269-6
Register, P.J., Aftosmis, M.A., Stern, E.C., Brock, J.M., Seltner, S., Willems, A., Guelhan, A., Mathias, D.L., 2020. Interactions between asteroid fragments during atmospheric entry. Icarus 337, 113468. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2019.113468
Marwege, A., Willems, S., Gülhan, A., Aftosmis, M.J., Stern, E.C., 2018. Superposition method for force estimations on bodies in supersonic and hypersonic flows. Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets 55(5), 1166-1180. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A34128

Coupled Radiation Entry Simulations

Johnston, C.O., Stern, E.C., 2023. Assessment of meteoroid pre-atmospheric diameter from brightness measurements prior to fragmentation. Icarus 408, 115807. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2023.115807
Johnston, C.O., Stern, E.C., Borovička, J., 2021. Simulating the Benešov bolide flowfield and spectrum at altitudes of 47 and 57 km. Icarus 354, 114037. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2020.114037
Johnston, C.O., Stern, E.C., 2019. A model for thermal radiation from the Tunguska airburst. Icarus, 327, 48–59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2019.01.028
Johnston, C.O., Stern, E.C., Wheeler, L.F., 2018. Radiative heating of large meteoroids during atmospheric entry. Icarus 309, 25–44. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2018.02.026
Johnston, C.O., Stern, E.C., 2017. Influence of coupled radiation and ablation on meteor entries. 47th AIAA Thermophysics Conference, AIAA AVIATION Forum, (AIAA 2017-4533). https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2017-4533 [conference paper]

Meteoroid Ablation and Melt Characterization

Raghunandan, P., Haskins, J., Palmer, G., Bessire, B., Stern, E., 2021, Material Response Modeling of Melt Flow-Vapor Ablation for Iron, AIAA Journal. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.J060788
Panerai, F., Bessire, B., Haskins, J., Foster, C., Barnard, H., Stern, E., Feldman, J., 2021. Morphological Evolution of Ordinary Chondrite Microstructure during Heating: Implications for Atmospheric Entry. Planetary Science Journal 2, 179. https://doi.org/10.3847/PSJ/ac1749
Dias, B., Turchi, A., Stern, E.C, Margin, T.E., 2020. A model for meteoroid ablation including melting and vaporization. Icarus 345, 113710. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2020.113710
Haskins, J. B., Stern, E.C., Bauschlicher, C. W., Lawson, J. W., 2019. Thermodynamic and Transport Properties of Meteor Melt Constituents from Ab Initio Simulations: MgSiO3, SiO2, and MgO. Journal of Applied Physics 125, 235102. https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5079418
Chen, Y-K., Stern, E. C., Agrawal, P., 2018. Thermal Ablation Simulation of Quartz Materials. Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 56, No. 3, 865–874. https://doi.org/10.2514/1.A34303
Agrawal, P., Jenniskens, P., Stern, E. C., Arnold, J. O., Chen, Y-K., 2018. Arcjet Ablation of Stony and Iron Meteorites. 2018 Aerodynamic Measurement Technology and Ground Testing Conference, AIAA AVIATION Forum. (AIAA 2018-4284). https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2018-4284 [conference paper]

Meteorite Characterization

Ostrowski, D.R., Bryson, K.L., 2020. Laboratory examination of the physical properties of ordinary chondrites. Meteoritics and Planetary Science. https://doi.org/10.1111/maps.13562
Ostrowski, D.R., Bryson, K.L., 2019. The physical properties of meteorites. Planetary and Space Science 165, 148–178. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pss.2018.11.003
Bryson, K.L., Ostrowski, D.R., Blasizzo, A., 2018. Meteorite flaws and scaling for atmospheric entry. Planetary and Space Science 164, 85–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pss.2018.06.018
Sears, D.W.G., Sears, H., Otrowski, D.R., Bryson, K.L., Dotson, J., Bruck Syal, M., Swift, D.C., 2016. A meteorite perspective on asteroid hazard mitigation. Planetary and Space Science 124, 105–117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pss.2016.01.016

Bolide Observations

Ozerov, A., Smith, J. C., Dotson, J. L., Longenbaugh, R. S., Morris, R. L, 2023. GOES GLM, biased bolides, and debiased distributions. Icarus. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2023.115843
Morris, R., Smith. J. C., Dotson, J. L., Stern, E. C., Longenbaugh, R. S., 2022. Correction and calibration of atmospheric impact observations in GOES GLM data. Meteoritics & Planetary Science. https://doi.org/10.1111/maps.13926
Jenniskens, P., …, Robertson, D., et al., 2021. The impact and recovery of asteroid 2018 LA. Meteoritics & Planetary Science, 56, 844-893. https://doi.org/10.1111/maps.13653
Smith, J., Morris, R., Rumpf, C., Longenbaugh, R., McCurdy, N., Henze, C., Dotson, J., 2021. An automated bolide detection pipeline for GOES GLM. Icarus, 368, 114576. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2021.114576
Rumpf, C., Longenbaugh, R., Henze, C., Chavez, J., Mathias, D., 2019. Algorithmic Approach for Detecting Bolides with the Geostationary Lightning Mapper. Sensors 2019, 19(5), 1008. https://doi.org/10.3390/s19051008
Jenniskens, P., Popova, O. P., Glazachev, D. O., Podobnaya, E. D., & Kartashova, A. P., 2019. Tunguska eyewitness accounts, injuries, and casualties. Icarus 327, 4-18. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2019.01.001
Unsalan, O., Jenniskens, P., …, Robertson, D.K., Ostrowski D.R., Prabhu, D.K., …, et al., 2019. The Sariçiçek howardite fall in Turkey: Source crater of HED meteorites on Vesta and impact risk of Vestoids. Meteoritics & Planetary Science 54, Nr 5, 953–1008. https://doi.org/10.1111/maps.13258
Jenniskens, P., Albers, J., Tillier, C. E., Edgington, S. F., Longenbaugh, R. S., Goodman, S. J., et al., 2018. Detection of meteoroid impacts by the Geostationary Lightning Mapper on the GOES-16 satellite. Meteoritics & Planetary Science, 53(12), 2445–2469. http://doi.org/10.1111/maps.13137

Other Related Publications

Morrison, D., Robertson, D.K., 2019. Introduction to Icarus special papers on Tunguska. Icarus 327, 1¬–3. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2019.04.011
Morrison, D., 2018. Tunguska Workshop: Applying Modern Tools to Understand the 1908 Tunguska Impact. NASA Technical Memorandum, NASA/TM‐220174. https://ntrs.nasa.gov/archive/nasa/casi.ntrs.nasa.gov/20190002302.pdf (NASA TM)
Morrison, D., 2019. Overview of Active Planetary Defense Methods. In: Schmidt N. (eds) Planetary Defense. Space and Society. Springer, Cham, pp. 113–121. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01000-3_7
Morrison D., 2019. The Cosmic Impact Hazard. In: Schmidt N. (eds) Planetary Defense. Space and Society. Springer, Cham, pp. 15–32. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01000-3_2
Rumpf, C.M., 2019. Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment: Rationalizing the Threat. In: Schmidt N. (eds) Planetary Defense. Space and Society. Springer, Cham, pp. 181–203. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-01000-3_12
Rumpf, C.M., Lewis, H. G., Atkinson, P. M., 2017. Asteroid impact effects and their immediate hazards for human populations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 3433–3440. https://doi:10.1002/2017GL073191
Rumpf, C., Lewis, H. and Atkinson, P., 2017. Population vulnerability models for asteroid impact risk assessment. Meteorit Planet Sci, 52: 1082–1102. https://doi.org/10.1111/maps.12861
Rumpf, C., Lewis, H., Atkinson, P., 2016. On the influence of impact effect modelling for global asteroid impact risk distribution. Acta Astronautica 123 (June), 165–170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2016.03.015
Rumpf, C., Lewis, H., Atkinson, P., 2016. The global impact distribution of Near-Earth objects. Icarus, 265, 209-217. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2015.10.026
Rumpf, C., Lewis, H. and Atkinson, P., 2016. Global impact risk of known asteroids. 2016 IEEE Aerospace Conference, Big Sky, MT, pp. 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1109/AERO.2016.7500622
Johnston, C.O., Samareh, J., Brandis, A.M., 2015. Aerothermodynamic characteristics of 16-22 km/s Earth entry", 45th AIAA Thermophysics Conference, AIAA AVIATION Forum, (AIAA 2015-3110). https://doi.org/10.2514/6.2015-3110 (conference paper)
Stokes, G., et al., 2003. Study to Determine the Feasibility of Extending the Search for Near-Earth Objects to Smaller Limiting Diameters. National Aeronautics and Space Administration. https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/doc/neoreport030825.pdf